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The "Valley Parliament" is not an elected legislature. It's a bunch of Jezreel Valley residents who get together every once in a while at Kibbutz Yifat to chew the fat and talk politics. Last week, they invited Ehud Olmert for a chat over munchies and malt beer. It was here, at this informal meeting, wearing a sporty T-shirt, that Olmert dropped a political bomb: He announced his intention to run for chairman of the Kadima party and prime minister in the next elections.
As someone who once said that a prime minister doesn't need an agenda, Olmert took everyone by surprise by choosing this particular forum to unveil the outlines of a political agenda for the continuation of his reign - shelving the convergence plan and reaching a long-term agreement with the Palestinians that will require "tough decisions." Ariel Sharon, in his day, spoke about "painful unilateral concessions," because he didn't see a partner for an agreement on the other side.
Up until a few days ago, most political commentators said that Olmert was living on borrowed time and would soon be forced to resign. Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have been sharpening their claws in expectation of easy prey, and members of Kadima have ordered suits and party dresses for the day they inherit his seat. But this Sunday, Olmert invited 150 Kadima wheelers and dealers to a powwow at his official residence. There, while lashing out at the state's legal and investigating authorities, he declared that the news of his political death is premature. |
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Olmert is convinced that he will survive both the Lindenstrauss and Winograd reports. He believes Kadima will survive as a party, and he will smite all those who covet his seat. I, Olmert, am staying put. This is my job.
True, he didn't specify a date for the 18th Knesset elections. He didn't say who his partners would be in the political arena, or explain how, from the bottom of the barrel in the polls, he would climb back to the top. But it seems pretty certain that he has some reason for claiming: "I am here and I'll still be around next year." One of the participants heard him say something about 2010.
Since Sharon went into a coma in January 2006, the unilateral disengagement that made hearts tremble has turned out to be a failure. First, it was carried out without an agreement with the other side. And second, President George W. Bush, a serial bungler, insisted that the Palestinian Authority hold democratic elections. These elections took place, Hamas won, and the territories Israel evacuated turned overnight into a base for Hamas aggression that deteriorated into a bloody civil war. Europe, America and Sunni Islam got scared that the war between Hamastan and Fatahland would create a rift in the Islamic world. It is no coincidence that Egypt and Jordan closed their borders.
Olmert's new strategic goal is to guard the Palestinians in the West Bank from a Hamas takeover. Just a few months ago, Israel was saying Mahmoud Abbas was a weakling. Now Israel is feeding him spinach and padding him with money, arms and good will gestures. The idea of Hamas in Judea and Samaria is giving the Israeli defense establishment goose bumps.
There are some who speculate that we have missed the boat. They say that Bush is a lame duck already, and as good as politically dead. But there is something we need to remember: This lame duck is laying golden eggs for us, bolstering our security and supplying us with state-of-the-art weapons. In the event that Israel's survival is threatened, he will stand by us. Bush will do all this until his last day in office, a year and half from now. And yes, he has the power to send a third aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf.
Bashar Assad's meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Nasrallah has been perceived in Israel as a direct threat against it. But it isn't. The hot topic in Damascus was not Israel but their own fear of an American attack on Iran. These leaders headed to Damascus worried about their own skins, says Dr. Guy Bechor, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs.
Israel, which has never been eager for an international conference, is now pleased as punch with the U.S. initiative. Olmert sees the road to his political resurrection as strengthening Fatah leaders in the West Bank with money, arms, compromises and releasing prisoners. He wants Hamas supporters in Gaza to watch what is happening in Ramallah and its environs with a sinking heart, and see that there are other options.
Is he serious? Can he do it? Today, when there is no king of Israel, when every mistake in the book has been made, when the public is sick and tired of its leaders and pining for a political upheaval, is it possible that the next king of Israel will be Ehud Olmert - this time with an agenda?
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